The far-reaching implications of the 2010 Census

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke has outlined the enormity of the 2010 Census and its far-reaching implications:

* "The 2010 Census will be the biggest peacetime government mobilization in our nation's history," Locke told the annual conventions of the National Association of Black Journalists and the Asian American Journalists Association in August.

- "Over the next year, the Census Bureau will be one of the largest employers in the United States. We plan to hire almost 1.2 million people through the end of next year at a competitive hourly wage," he said.

- The federal government allocates, based on population, $400 billion in funds to local and state governments to pay for schools, transportation and public safety.

- "According to private analysts, as many as six states are on the cusp of gaining a congressional seat," Locke said. That would mean just as many states lose a congressman and, therefore, some clout in Congress.

Those private analysts work for Polidata, a Vermont company that follows population trends. The Founding Fathers created the census 220 years ago, in 1790, to determine how many seats to award each state in the House of Representatives.

Actually, Polidata forecast that eight states, not six, would gain seats in Congress based on the 2010 Census. All eight are in the South and West - the two regions that have been attracting new residents since 1970. The winners would be Texas, plus four seats; Arizona, plus two; and one each for Oregon, Nevada, Utah, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida.

The number of members in the House has been set at 435, so other states would lose congressional seats. All the losers are expected to be in the Northeast and Midwest, the two regions that have oozed population for the past 40 years.

Ohio would lose two seats. Shedding one apiece would be Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania, in the Northeast; and Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Missouri, in the Midwest.

Polidata's analysis relied on 2008 census estimates to make those forecasts. They reflect the huge population upheavals resulting from the destruction that Hurricane Katrina wrought on Mississippi, Alabama and New Orleans. But the numbers do not reflect the population shifts caused by the recession.

The final census numbers will also impact presidential politics. The number of a state's electoral votes is determined by totaling its congressional seats and its two senators.

Democratic strongholds like New York, Pennsylvania and Michigan are expected to continue to lose congressional seats and electoral votes. Republican bastions such as Texas and Arizona have been gaining in both counts and probably will even more.

The census is really about power.

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Notable fact: Each member of Congress now represents an average of 701,000 people. That's more than the populations of North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.