The 2010 Census

One of the most historic censuses in US history is four months away. The major theme of this census: The historic racial-ethnic changes in the 21st century.

The 2010 Census story, now well underway, will continue through May 2011 and beyond. I suggest that news organizations create a three-part coverage plan:

I. The count, from now to July 2010.

II. The winners and losers, December 2010 to May 2011.

III. The children, April 2011 into the future.

The Census Bureau has published a calendar of important dates related to the decennial count.

The 2010 Census is a big deal because it will probably make clear that the United States will become a majority-minority nation within many of our lifetimes. Yes, I know in December the Census Bureau put the date at 2050. But 47 percent of the children under five now are minorities. That’s the important number.

I. The Count. Paul Overberg, who guides USA Today’s extensive census coverage, made these suggestions at a 2010 Census seminar for journalists at the University of Michigan in October 2009.

1. Right now, report on how your community will be counted. Has a census office opened in your community?

2. Local nonprofits are playing a huge role in marketing this census because of shrinking city and state budgets. Who are these groups around your community? The Census Bureau has this information.

3. Who might be missed? Newspapers in Detroit and Syracuse, N.Y. are already asking their “snowbirds” to report their permanent address in the North, not their winter residence in the South. Why? Because these northern states are oozing population and, therefore, might lose seats in Congress.

Since 1790, the census has been conducted every 10 years to reapportion the House of Representatives.

Some California and western newspapers are reporting on the difficulty of counting immigrants, especially those who are undocumented.

4. Response Rates. The Census Bureau has promised to publish daily response rates for local communities. That practice will enable journalists can check on how their community is doing and how its rate compares to neighboring jurisdictions. This is a timely, relevant set of statistics to put on the websites of news organizations.

II. The winners and losers. What are the new power equations in the Congress and state legislatures? This part of the story unfolds from December through the end of state legislative sessions.

The Census Bureau releases the first state population counts in December. This is the raw material for maps of demographic changes in a community and for future battles over redrawing the lines of political districts.

Overberg suggests these frames for coverage:

5. Conflict. Upstate versus downstate. Politics. Race-Ethnicity.

6. What has changed? Across time. Across space from a local community to the county to the state. Look at similar counties: How do they differ and why?

III. The children. The census can predict the future of local areas, because demographics is destiny.

To see the future, visit an elementary school. Schools are the best places to glimpse the Next America. Are a majority of students or a near-majority of them minorities?

They are the area’s future taxpayers, workers, readers and leaders. At what rates are minority students graduating from high school and college? If those rates are low, the area probably faces a future tax base anchored on blue-collar wages.

Links to stories about major issues and developments pertaining to the 2010 Census.

Overview of census-related controversies:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2009-09-22-censusmess_N.htm?o...

Response Rates:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2009-10-19-census_N.htm

Places asking retirees to register in their hometowns:
http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/256925/

Counting undocumented immigrants:
http://www.parkrecord.com/ci_14088776?source=most_viewed

Private foundations offer millions to ensure accurate census count:
http://www.contracostatimes.com/news/ci_14068207?nclick_check=1

The census and agriculture: http://www.hoosieragtoday.com/wire/news/00038_census_170615.php